Friday, September 09, 2005
Looking Ahead
Since just about every columnist, blogger, and reporter that covers the Angels will inevitably do an off-season needs/possibilities report and will undoubtedly do it a damn sight better than me, I have decided to make my mark by turning in my analysis early. This is in no way a concession that this season is for all intents and purposes over for the Angels. It's simply my way of striking before the iron is even brought out of the closet. Without further adieu...
NEEDS
Power. Anything power-ish. Any mild threat of power.
As anyone can tell you, the Angels' offense of late has looked more like a rolling blackout than a baseball team. Much of this can be attributed to a single slot in the lineup, that which follows Vladimir The Impaler. With Bengie Molina, Darin Erstad, or even Garret Anderson batting behind Vladdy, opposing pitchers have had no incentive to pitch to the Dominican Minotaur and thus, the Angels have been robbed of their best, and often only, productive bat. I believe the number one offseason priority should be to solve this problem by finding a powerful, preferably right-handed bat.
Cuban defector Kendry Morales is hitting at a collective .315 clip with 22 Hrs and 71 RBI for the Angels' single- and double-A affiliates and is a switch hitter. Baseball America describes Morales as follows:
Morales, 6-foot-1, 225 pounds, has power from both sides of the plate, is an above-average defender with solid-average arm strength and fringe-average speed. He has advanced instincts and a good feel for the game. He profiles as a corner outfielder, but has also played first and third base.
The Angels are known for their promote-from-within mentality and, obviously, that's the most cost effective way to solve the problem. My only problem with using Kendry to fill this cavernous gap in the offense is whether or not he is really ready to produce at the major league level, much less rescue an offense with a threat of consistent power.
The Angels' scouting director Eddie Bane says Morales is major-league ready but with the slow progress made by the other two crowned jewels of the farm system, McPherson and Kotchman, I am reluctant to rest such responsibility on the shoulders of a rookie, especially with the players I just mentioned still developing.
I think this the way the Angels will go and I can't really blame them. Bill Stoneman is firmly against stunting the growth of his young players and would be thankful to get a good deal on a player after getting burned by Steve Finley and The New Garret Anderson. I would support this promotion-as-solution with the stipulation that Stoneman keep his eyes open for trades should The Kendry Experiment not work out. I know, good luck with that.
If the Angels decide to look out of their own closet and go shopping for a new bat, my vote goes to Dmitri "Da Meat Hook" Young. He's a switch-hitting 25-29 HR, 80 RBI, 100+ SO guy with one of the best nicknames in baseball today. A recent at-bat fulfilled an incentive in his contract that kicks it in for one more year at $8 million. A trade for Da Meat Hook would land the Halos their power protection for Vladdy for the same price they're paying Steve Finley and, like Finley, Young would not be under contract following the 2006 season. It seems to make sense to me. He's a veteran who can serve as the short term solution, giving the Angels contract-year production while they test out Morales, DMac, and Kotchman. The other benefit of Young is that, while being pretty much an everyday DH, he does have experience at 1B, LF, and even some 3B. This would give manager Mike Scioscia a lot of lineup and alignment options, not to mention provide depth when the Angels' annual injury bug starts biting. Who would the Tigers want for Da Meat Hook, you ask? How should I know? Go check a Tigers blog. Maybe they'd settle for a pitching prospect and Young's contract off the books a year early, who knows. Moving on...
For $17 million more (over two seasons), the Angels could get 1B/DH Mike Sweeney, a "great clubhouse guy" with similar power to Young but with a higher average and less than half the strikouts. Despite the better numbers and the strength of character, I'm not sure I like this option as much as I do Da Meat Hook and it has nothing to do with the nickname. As if the Angels didn't already have enough bad backs with GA and DMac, Sweeney's got a nagger as well that would undoubtedly keep his DL dance card with more than a name or two on it each season. He costs more, he's a greater injury risk, and he's a two-year contract which would likely mean less opportunities for the young bucks. A good nickname could only help his cause.
FINDERS/KEEPERS
As far as free agency goes, the Angels have two basic choices...
To bring back Bengie or to not bring back Bengie. Seeing as how I wanted to keep Percival and Glaus following last season, it should come as no surprise that I think the Angels should keep the elder Molina too. Call me a foolish sentimentalist, but the career Angel backstop is an integral part of the offense, the defense, and the club as a whole. If the Angels could get Bengie back at a price anywhere near his 2005 salary of $3 million, I think he would be a steal. Compare Bengie's 2005 stats and salary to those of Boston's captain-with-a-capitol-C Jason Varitek:
Molina .294 AVG, 13 HRs, 60 RBI - $3 million
Varitek .291 AVG, 21 HRs, 65 RBI - $8 million
The bigger question is, if not Bengie, who? In an offense that is built on timely hitting, who is going to fill Bengie's shoes to the tune of his .341 avg w/2 outs, his .333 avg in the late innings of close games, or his .276 avg w/RISP -- all from the catching position no less? His brother Jose? Close but no C-gar. Rookie Jeff Mathis? Maybe someday but not next season. Former Athletic and current Padre catcher Ramon Hernandez would appear to be the best free agent catcher going on the market (aside from Bengie), but he's already raking in close to a million and a half more than Bengie. If they can get him for something around $10 million for two seasons, I think the Angels need to do that.
The impending choice is whether to re-sign Jarrod Washburn or Paul Byrd. With the emergence of Ervin Santanna, they don't really have the need nor the room for both. The lefty Washburn is clearly the better of the two pitchers, but the Byrd man has been a more than adequate fifth starter and could presumably be signed for less money($6.5 mil vs $5 mil in 2005). I expect that the Angels will keep Byrd and reallocate the salary difference to another player or just pocket the money to offset the money pit known as Steve Finley. I think this is a fine route to take, but I also begin to salivate when I imagine a rotation of Colon, Escobar, Lackey, Washburn, and Santanna. That's a rotation that would challenge to be the best in baseball. But who needs that, right?
To sum it up quickly, I'd like to see the Angels look a little something like this:
C--Molina
1B--Kotchman
2B--Kennedy
3B--McPherson/Figgins
SS--Cabrerra
LF--Anderson/Young
CF--Erstad/Figgins
RF--Guerrero
DH--Young/Figgins
Finley's absence is no accident. While there is a chance that Finley's 2005 will go down as a great enigma before he snaps back to something resembling respectable, I'm not sure I want to wait around. If they get an offer of Steve Finley for a 6-pack of Bud Light, I think that's a deal they have to get done.
SP--Colon
SP--Escobar
SP--Lackey
SP--Washburn
SP--Santanna
So that's all I have at this point. I know I didn't address the bullpen at all and I know I didn't get into the trade and free agent contract specifics. Give me a break, it's September. Look for updates as the weather cools and other possibilities materialize...or until the more thorough bloggers make any entry I might throw together obsolete. Until then, go Halos.
|
NEEDS
Power. Anything power-ish. Any mild threat of power.
As anyone can tell you, the Angels' offense of late has looked more like a rolling blackout than a baseball team. Much of this can be attributed to a single slot in the lineup, that which follows Vladimir The Impaler. With Bengie Molina, Darin Erstad, or even Garret Anderson batting behind Vladdy, opposing pitchers have had no incentive to pitch to the Dominican Minotaur and thus, the Angels have been robbed of their best, and often only, productive bat. I believe the number one offseason priority should be to solve this problem by finding a powerful, preferably right-handed bat.
Cuban defector Kendry Morales is hitting at a collective .315 clip with 22 Hrs and 71 RBI for the Angels' single- and double-A affiliates and is a switch hitter. Baseball America describes Morales as follows:
Morales, 6-foot-1, 225 pounds, has power from both sides of the plate, is an above-average defender with solid-average arm strength and fringe-average speed. He has advanced instincts and a good feel for the game. He profiles as a corner outfielder, but has also played first and third base.
The Angels are known for their promote-from-within mentality and, obviously, that's the most cost effective way to solve the problem. My only problem with using Kendry to fill this cavernous gap in the offense is whether or not he is really ready to produce at the major league level, much less rescue an offense with a threat of consistent power.
The Angels' scouting director Eddie Bane says Morales is major-league ready but with the slow progress made by the other two crowned jewels of the farm system, McPherson and Kotchman, I am reluctant to rest such responsibility on the shoulders of a rookie, especially with the players I just mentioned still developing.
I think this the way the Angels will go and I can't really blame them. Bill Stoneman is firmly against stunting the growth of his young players and would be thankful to get a good deal on a player after getting burned by Steve Finley and The New Garret Anderson. I would support this promotion-as-solution with the stipulation that Stoneman keep his eyes open for trades should The Kendry Experiment not work out. I know, good luck with that.
If the Angels decide to look out of their own closet and go shopping for a new bat, my vote goes to Dmitri "Da Meat Hook" Young. He's a switch-hitting 25-29 HR, 80 RBI, 100+ SO guy with one of the best nicknames in baseball today. A recent at-bat fulfilled an incentive in his contract that kicks it in for one more year at $8 million. A trade for Da Meat Hook would land the Halos their power protection for Vladdy for the same price they're paying Steve Finley and, like Finley, Young would not be under contract following the 2006 season. It seems to make sense to me. He's a veteran who can serve as the short term solution, giving the Angels contract-year production while they test out Morales, DMac, and Kotchman. The other benefit of Young is that, while being pretty much an everyday DH, he does have experience at 1B, LF, and even some 3B. This would give manager Mike Scioscia a lot of lineup and alignment options, not to mention provide depth when the Angels' annual injury bug starts biting. Who would the Tigers want for Da Meat Hook, you ask? How should I know? Go check a Tigers blog. Maybe they'd settle for a pitching prospect and Young's contract off the books a year early, who knows. Moving on...
For $17 million more (over two seasons), the Angels could get 1B/DH Mike Sweeney, a "great clubhouse guy" with similar power to Young but with a higher average and less than half the strikouts. Despite the better numbers and the strength of character, I'm not sure I like this option as much as I do Da Meat Hook and it has nothing to do with the nickname. As if the Angels didn't already have enough bad backs with GA and DMac, Sweeney's got a nagger as well that would undoubtedly keep his DL dance card with more than a name or two on it each season. He costs more, he's a greater injury risk, and he's a two-year contract which would likely mean less opportunities for the young bucks. A good nickname could only help his cause.
FINDERS/KEEPERS
As far as free agency goes, the Angels have two basic choices...
To bring back Bengie or to not bring back Bengie. Seeing as how I wanted to keep Percival and Glaus following last season, it should come as no surprise that I think the Angels should keep the elder Molina too. Call me a foolish sentimentalist, but the career Angel backstop is an integral part of the offense, the defense, and the club as a whole. If the Angels could get Bengie back at a price anywhere near his 2005 salary of $3 million, I think he would be a steal. Compare Bengie's 2005 stats and salary to those of Boston's captain-with-a-capitol-C Jason Varitek:
Molina .294 AVG, 13 HRs, 60 RBI - $3 million
Varitek .291 AVG, 21 HRs, 65 RBI - $8 million
The bigger question is, if not Bengie, who? In an offense that is built on timely hitting, who is going to fill Bengie's shoes to the tune of his .341 avg w/2 outs, his .333 avg in the late innings of close games, or his .276 avg w/RISP -- all from the catching position no less? His brother Jose? Close but no C-gar. Rookie Jeff Mathis? Maybe someday but not next season. Former Athletic and current Padre catcher Ramon Hernandez would appear to be the best free agent catcher going on the market (aside from Bengie), but he's already raking in close to a million and a half more than Bengie. If they can get him for something around $10 million for two seasons, I think the Angels need to do that.
The impending choice is whether to re-sign Jarrod Washburn or Paul Byrd. With the emergence of Ervin Santanna, they don't really have the need nor the room for both. The lefty Washburn is clearly the better of the two pitchers, but the Byrd man has been a more than adequate fifth starter and could presumably be signed for less money($6.5 mil vs $5 mil in 2005). I expect that the Angels will keep Byrd and reallocate the salary difference to another player or just pocket the money to offset the money pit known as Steve Finley. I think this is a fine route to take, but I also begin to salivate when I imagine a rotation of Colon, Escobar, Lackey, Washburn, and Santanna. That's a rotation that would challenge to be the best in baseball. But who needs that, right?
To sum it up quickly, I'd like to see the Angels look a little something like this:
C--Molina
1B--Kotchman
2B--Kennedy
3B--McPherson/Figgins
SS--Cabrerra
LF--Anderson/Young
CF--Erstad/Figgins
RF--Guerrero
DH--Young/Figgins
Finley's absence is no accident. While there is a chance that Finley's 2005 will go down as a great enigma before he snaps back to something resembling respectable, I'm not sure I want to wait around. If they get an offer of Steve Finley for a 6-pack of Bud Light, I think that's a deal they have to get done.
SP--Colon
SP--Escobar
SP--Lackey
SP--Washburn
SP--Santanna
So that's all I have at this point. I know I didn't address the bullpen at all and I know I didn't get into the trade and free agent contract specifics. Give me a break, it's September. Look for updates as the weather cools and other possibilities materialize...or until the more thorough bloggers make any entry I might throw together obsolete. Until then, go Halos.
# posted by j.h.k. @ 1:55 PM 
