Friday, October 15, 2004

 

Lefty Not Always Right Answer

One issue that has been brought up since I posted yesterday was that of a left-handed relief pitcher such as Oakland lefty Chris Hammond who will be a free agent.

I think a lefty reliever might help the Angels pen, but I don't see it as a necessity. If Percival skips town and everybody else slides up one spot, they should add another arm, southpaw or otherwise. It's ridiculously unfair to say that David Ortiz's season-ending walkoff homerun is an indicator of a glaring need for the Angels. For the last three years, Anaheim has had arguably the best bullpen in baseball and in that time they have not needed a left-hander to achieve that distinction. Washburn making one bad pitch doesn't change that. Of course, this begs the question "Would a regular left-handed reliever have made the same mistake as a left-handed starter making a rare relief appearance?" Who the hell knows. Maybe Scioscia needed somebody like Chris Hammond out of the bullpen in that situation. Maybe he would have been just as well to use Percival. Maybe Washburn was poised for some lights-out relief work but just missed his spot and hung one pitch. We'll never know.

Hypothetically, you'd like your manager to have as many viable strategic options as possible. If the Angels have already secured the priorities I listed yesterday and can afford to get a good lefty reliever, I say sure, do it. But don't lose sight of the bigger issues and don't think one bad pitch means you have to start adding this guy or that guy. For my money, I'd bet Troy Percival or even Washburn's second pitch could have gotten Ortiz out just as well as Chris Hammond could have.


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Thursday, October 14, 2004

 

Calling All (New) Angels

Now that the Angels 2004 campaign has come to a close, it's time for all the Halo pundits to weigh in on the upcoming offseason. There's so many issues up in the air with questions about signings and resignings, defensive realignments and call ups, so I think rather than present all the options, I will simply submit my amateur recommendations for which directions the team should take. I'm no Bill Stoneman or Theo Epstein, but I'm hardly a Jim Duquette either so don't worry about me trading away Dallas McPherson and Jered Weaver for a six-pack of Natural Ice.

The Angels Offseason priorities As I See It:

1. Sign a top-notch free agent starting pitcher. I contribute the Angels demise this season mostly to the fact that they had to use Colon, Escobar, and Washburn on three days' rest for consecutive starts. By the time they got to the playoffs, they were overworked and burnt out. The biggest need for the Angels is another bankable arm in the rotation to share the load and keep the entire front end of the staff fresher for the playoffs. My first choice here would be Carl Pavano. While I've heard reports that he wants to stay in Florida or at least the East Coast, nobody thought Vladimir Guerrero would end up in Angel Red either. Anything's possible. My second choice would be Brad Radke because the guy's as dependable as the sunrise. Minnesota is bound to do their best to keep him, but the Angels could outbid them if Brad wants to try his luck against the Yankees in a new uniform. Matt Clement might be my third choice, but I would still be sporting a halo of excitement should the Angels sign him. Any one of these three guys could be the difference for Anaheim in 2005. Priority number one should be spending the $10-12 million per year to bolster the starting staff.

2. Resign Troy Glaus. If, and only if, he will play 1st base. We saw flashes of promise from Dallas McPherson in his late season audition in 2004, but we also saw a hitter who, at times, was completely overmatched and totally baffled by breaking balls. He might not be ready to replace Troy Glaus, but he's too good to spend another year in AAA. Troy Glaus, the former World Series MVP, reminded us all of the incredible things he is capable of at the plate this postseason, hitting 2 HRs in 3 games and posting a batting average and on-base-plus-slugging percentage of .364 and 1.552 respectively. And let's not forget Glaus was leading the majors in homeruns when he went down with injury in early May. The kicker is he's only just now coming into his prime. This is the kind of offensive production the Angels need from a first baseman. He's no slouch defensively either. To get him to move to first would give the Angels better offense and allow some safety in their investment by moving him to a defensive position where his skills will not be wasted a la the DH but his surgically-repaired shoulder will not be under such great stress either. After two injury-plagued seasons, will Troy really be able to get Eric Chavez money or more on the open market? If the Yankees didn't already have a third baseman, I would say yes, but, otherwise, I don't think so. Who can afford to take that kind of a gamble? I believe the Angels could sign Troy to a one-year deal at $10 million, a very slight raise over his current salary of $9.9 million. It gives him a year to put up gaudy numbers and earn a bigger deal and it gives the Angels more time to make a long-term decision.

What to do with Erstad and Anderson then? Darin Erstad is going to win the 2004 Gold Glove at first base and is one of the greatest defensive players of all-time (yeah, i said it). However, his defense is put to much better use in centerfield. The upgrade of Erstad over Anderson in center is far greater than the downgrade of Erstad to Glaus at first. I realize Erstad is now at greater risk of injury in center but I think you take that chance in order to get a vacuum like Darin stealing outs from opposing teams. He'll have the winter to get strong and he'll be the first to tell you, playing first base is hardly a vacation for your hamstrings anyway. Because of the gamer he is, he's gonna dive wherever you play him so move Erstad back to his natural position and make Garret the everyday DH. Yes, you read that correctly, make Garret Anderson the designated hitter. Hopefully, Anderson will prove to be a true team player and will accept the move as the best thing for the team because, let's face it, of the four outfield possibilities of Guillen, Erstad, Guerrero and Anderson, Garret is without question the weakest.

Which brings me to Jose Guillen. Jose has apologized to the team, said he'd like to return, and even started anger management classes voluntarily. If Scioscia feels he can manage Jose again, I think you have to bring him back. Who else is going to give you 27 HRs and 104 RBI for a paltry $3.5 million? Jose Guillen was arguably the best value in baseball in 2004. I'll address payroll later, but I'll say now that if you're going to keep the salary of Glaus and add that of Pavano/Radke/Clement, you need the bargain production of Guillen to offset it.

3. Offer a compromise to Troy Percival. He keeps the closer job but for less money. He of the 316 career saves for the Angels and only the Angels deserves to be treated with the utmost respect and should be allowed to finish his career as the Angels' closer. While ineffective for a stretch this season, Percy returned from injury a wiser pitcher. Knowing he was not going to blow away hitters with 97-mph heat anymore, the crafty veteran developed better control of his curveball and changeup and proved to be as dependable as ever down the stretch with a 1.67 post-All-Star break ERA. Most of all, he has the true closer's mentality. Like Anthony Hopkins as Hannibal Lecter, he owns the role. Frankie Rodriguez is probably the future closer of the Angels, but the fact that he blew 7 out of 19 save opportunities in 2004 should tell you something. He has the stuff, he has the fire, but does he have the mental toughness to be the lone gunman on the un-grassy knoll in the 9th inning at this point in his career? His clutch play in tough situations one inning prior might lead you to believe he is, but I don't think the case is so cut-and-dry that we should bid farewell to Percival just yet. The issues with Percival have been perceived to be his refusal to a) take a lesser salary and b) accept a lesser role. I don't want to put him in a lesser role. I want to ask him to finish his career as my closer and compromise with me by signing for less money so that I can afford to keep my end of the bargain. Is finishing his career as the closer for his only team worth $2 million a year? We'll have to see. If he accepts those terms, it will be a proud day for the organization and we'll shake hands in mutual respect. If he feels he can't be paid less and is willing to follow a bigger paycheck out of town, we'll wish him well and give him a standing ovation whenever he returns. No hard feelings whatsoever. We'll put the ball in Frankie's hands for better or worse and hope to see Percy in an Angel uniform again someday in a coaching capacity perhaps.

4. Sign First Round Pick Jered Weaver. Play hardball as long as you like, but sign this pitcher. Many believe Weaver could be good enough to challenge for a spot in the starting rotation by next spring. While I'm not so sure about that, it's just as important to develop talent in the farm system anyway. Most of my friends live in Long Beach and saw many of Weaver's jaw-dropping outings for Long Beach State in person. If his ridiculous stats don't sell me on the guy, Joe and Rich Lederer's personal endorsement does and they say this guy is unbelievable. The only reason he fell to the Angels, of course, is that other teams didn't think they could pay his price tag. I say offer him a deal similar to that of Mark Prior, low-base ($0.25 million) with escalations based on performance ($0.5 million raise per ROTY, Cy Young, and All-Star achievement) and a nice signing bonus in the $4 million range. That's a fair deal for both sides. If agent Scott Boras is going to try to tell us Weaver deserves more than Mark Prior, somebody cut off his bar tab at The National and tell him to come back when he's sobered up.

Other Moves. Let's talk about the financials because you probably think I'm crazy at this point. Dumping the salaries of Appier and Sele (I'm sorry Aaron, I didn't realize you were still here. You may go now.) will net $20.5 million in savings. Bartolo's contract takes him from $9 mil. to $8 mil. next season so there's another million. Depending on what Percival decides to do, we're looking at either $2 million or $8 million savings there. I think you have to buyout Bengie Molina's $3 million contract for $100,000. He's a former Gold Glover but with younger, faster, cheaper and equally defensively talented Jose on the roster, you can't justify $3 million for Bengie. Buy him out. Ramon Ortiz spent much of the season moaning about a starting job so let someone else pay him $5.5 million to do it. He's gone. The total savings now comes to $31.9 million if Percy stays, $37.9 million if he goes.

Now let's spend that savings. Give $10 or $11 million to our free agent starter, $4.25 (including bonus) to Weaver, and a $100,000 raise to Glaus. Also, let's tack on $5 million for raises for Washburn, Eckstein, and Davanon. Has anyone other than Davanon really got a case to show an arbitrator that they deserve a huge raise? The total spending is now $20.35 million on the high end. The total team payroll would be just over $100 million if Percy stays and $94.5 million if he goes. Is that not Arte's target number? I'll admit, I may have been a little overly ambitious on the contracts of Glaus and the Arbitration Boys, but I don't think I'm far enough off to where the deals can't be done.

By letting Bengie and Ramon go, you might think I've left the roster undersized, but I think their roles have diminished enough to make the dropoff to cheaper players worth the savings. If it's doable, I'd love to resign Bengie at a more appropriate rate and I know Scioscia loves him.

I've read today that Bill Stoneman is "committed" to moving Garret Anderson back to left which would obviously point to the departure of Jose Guillen. Obviously Bill knows a lot more about Guillen-Gate than I do, but unless there was something absolutely unforgivable that occurred, I think it might be a mistake to dispatch him. As I said before, he is the Bang-For-Your-Buck Player of the Year and has a bazooka for a throwing arm. Do we really want to see Garret in left again? He seems to be an adequate defender at best, the type of player who should be playing DH so that a better defender can play the field. Why is this so out of the question? Does Garret really take pride in his defense? Just because he's not fat doesn't mean he can't be our David Ortiz.

Also, there seems to be a common perception that the Angels need more power in their lineup. I disagree. Yes, the Angels power numbers were down in 2004, but so were two of their best sluggers. Anderson was injured in one way or another all season and Glaus was completely out of the lineup for most of it. If they just get both of those guys back healthy in 2005, I believe the power production will go up. Not all of their problems need to be answered with outside help. If you want to get Carlos Beltran, Edgar Renteria, or, God help us, Nomar, they are all going to command double-digit salaries. The Angels cannot afford that if they're going to get a starting pitcher and keep Glaus. I think starting pitching is the absolute, hands down, number one need and should not be sacrificed for one iota of offense. And if it comes down to Glaus versus Beltran/Renteria, call me crazy but I'll take Troy Glaus (at first base). The guy is a masher and beyond that he's a local hero. Maybe his teammates were disappointed in him when he chose early season surgery and handcuffed the lineup, but how do you think those same teammates felt when he and Vlad carried the Angels in the playoffs?

Don't think I'm forgetting about the little people. A number of the young guys' contracts are up and renewable at no additional cost. Lackey, Jose Molina, Quinlan, Figgins, Donnelly, KRod, Shields and Gregg, welcome back. The only guy we might not need is Amaezega, but with the recent news that Adam Kennedy will miss a chunk of the 2005 season recovering from knee surgery, Alfredo might get to stay too to provide some infield depth. And what to do with Crazy Casey Kotchman? He's got neophyte status right now. He's too good for the minor leagues but he's not ready to be an everyday hitter, I don't think. Let him spell Glaus at first as Quinlan will do for McPherson at third.

So that's my wish list of offseason moves for the Almighty Angels. Some will say there's not enough new faces and some will say my projected payroll would only pass for a bottom line in Fantasyland. Well, the good news for the Angels is that they have a plethora of options before them as to how they improve their team. When the pool of players in question are guys like Glaus, Percival, Beltran, and Pavano to name a few, I like their chances to improve no matter what combination they end up with.





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Tuesday, October 12, 2004

 

Fun Fact: Bears Love Sour Grapes

At the end of the day Saturday, the Coliseum scoreboard read "USC 23, Cal 17." End of story? You would think so, but Cal quarterback Aaron Rodgers decided that a bitter loss was not enough. He chose, rather, to celebrate the crushing defeat by sticking his paw in his mouth.

"We dominated the game. We drove up and down the field all game and our defense was awesome. We just came up short."

You sure did, Aaron. About ten yards short. A smarter man would have accepted that and only opened his big yapper in the locker room long enough to say "We had our chance, but SC is tough. They're National Champs for a reason. Hopefully next year, we can come up with the W."

Let me tell you something, pal, you are no leader. Leaders don't make excuses and they don't talk about dominating games that they lost. They take full responsibility for the loss and, regardless of how much they may be burning inside, they respect their opponent publicly. It's a matter of representing yourself, your team, and your school or city like a gentleman and sportsman, not like a bitter loser. I don't recall ever hearing Peyton Manning or Brett Favre brag about "dominating" a game after they lost it.

"Our special teams might have let us down a little bit," Rodgers was quoted as saying in the Daily Californian, Cal Berkely's student newspaper.

That's another thing leaders don't do, Aaron, they don't blame their teammates. Leaders stick up for their teammates like brothers. They defend them from the pack of media wolves; you painted yours with barbecue sauce and handed them over. Don't talk to me about field goals missed or punts squandered. The fact of the matter is, you had the opportunity to win the game in your final possession. Regardless of everything that occurred up until that point, all you had to do to win the game was complete one 10-yard pass in four tries. You went 0-for-4. If you are going to be putting blame on anyone, it should damn well be on yourself. That's how the leadership thing works. If you're going to take the credit for "dominating," you have to take the blame for failing to execute when it mattered most and, thus, losing the game. You, sir, seem to want to take your impressive stats and your consecutive completion record home and leave somebody--anybody--else to carry in the luggage of losing. That's not what leaders are made of.

What is a quarterback worth if he's not a true leader? Not much more than a dead battery if you ask me. Rodgers had an impressive day, statiscally. He carved up the USC defense for 267 yards, one touchdown, and 23 straight completions to open the game. However, not a single pass was for more than 20 yards. Was this a great performance or a statistical anomaly resulting from two coordinators' strategies butting heads? Pete Carroll has made a living off of preventing the big play, conceding short passes underneath the zone and counting on his players to prevent perfection. Jeff Tedford called short routes all day long, content in chipping his way down the field five yards at a time, only calling two big-yardage plays and seeing both of them fail. How much credit does Aaron Rodgers really deserve for taking something the defensive coordinator was basically giving to him? Sure, no other quarterback has done as well against the same scheme this season, but Rodgers day was hardly worthy of special recognition. Does an NBA player deserve such honor for hitting 23 freethrows in a row (don't answer that, Shaq)?

The truth is, Rodgers had a good day...but he could have had a heroic day. Throw the 23 straight completions out the window. If he had hit just one pass out of his last four, Cal wins and Rodgers is Prince of the Pac-10. But he didn't. He choked. He was satisfied with his "dominance" and the availability of his special teams as a scapegoat. You don't have the stuff of a champion yet. All you have is the stuff of the scrappy youngster who thinks it's a great accomplishment to almost beat a great team. Until you're ready to act and play like a leader and a champion, shut your bear trap, Aaron Rodgers. And in the meantime, Fight On For Old SC.




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Ironic how Curt's wearing both the question and the answer.

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Rumble in the Bronx

Here we go again. Perhaps the most intriguing offseason in major league history and an entire season of baseball, and we find ourselves with the same two teams fighting (often literally) for the American League pennant. One of the most bitter rivalries in all of sports renews itself on the grandest stage possible, the Red Sox and Yankees in the ALCS. Buckle your seatbelts.

You can go to all the major sports sites and pull up 20 different breakdowns, most of them saying Boston has the edge because of their upgrade of Curt Schilling over Derek Lowe. Of course, the Yankees also now have ARod and Sheffield which should count as a bit of an upgrade as well. My problem with these analyses, however, is that they rely heavily on comparing last year's series to what should happen this year. I say last year's series is totally irrelevant on this season's field of play. This series is not about Boston being five outs better than last year's club as Kevin Millar will tell you. Who's to assume they will get all the same preceding outs to where they are only five outs away again? This series is about this year's personnel, completely independent of the achievements of last year's rosters.

Given that my hatred for Red Sox Nation is in my bone barrow, I'm obviously rooting for the Yankees in this series. Beyond that, the teams are so freakishly evenly matched, it will almost have to come down to a matter of wills, if not curses. And that is exactly what will ultimately determine the winner of this series. Despite all the feuding, the acquisitions, the t-shirts and the rhetoric, there is no negotiating around this simple truth: the Yankees are still the Yankees and the Red Sox are still the Red Sox.

It's all in the intangibles. For example, my buddies and I were at the ESPN Zone this past Saturday night. At the Zone they have this game where you actually throw pitches to a life-size simulation of major league baseball's biggest stars, the object being to strike them out. My comrade Sloppy Joe, a devout Red Sox fan, decided to take it upon himself to do what his team could not which is to beat the Yankees and he stepped into the cage against his archnemesis, Derek Jeter. In head-to-toe Red Sox gear and sporting a 74-mph "slider," Joe jumped ahead to an 0-2 count after two big cuts by the Yankees' captain. Rather than play it smart and try to get Jeter to chase a wasted pitch, Joe got a little cocky with his lead and went for the knockout punch. Jeter took that knockout pitch and drove it a good 380 feet. He then took a spirited jog around the bases and jumped proudly onto home plate, mobbed by his Yankee teammates. Joe shook it off and went downstairs to enjoy a twelve-dollar burger before working up the nerve to take another shot at Mr. November. Same matchup, same result. Jeter took him yard and Joe got a glimpse of the pain that awaits him in this series. Events like these are the superstitious supporters that will swing this series south to the Bronx.

Here's another one. As I said before, due to Boston bum rushing my Angels out of the playoffs, I am wearing a Red Sox shirt today. I could have worn it yesterday but I specifically waited until today. Why? Because it's game day. With Schilling on the mound for Boston in Game One tonight, it's the equivalent of being dealt a pair of kings, but as long yours truly is wearing this shirt, the House (That Ruth Built) is holding blackjack.

The Sports Guy made a great point today regarding this rivalry.

"...because of our tortured history, Fenway turns catatonic whenever something bad happens... Yankee fans expect to win at all times. Red Sox fans expect to win ... as long as something bad doesn't happen."

He was referring strictly to the fans, but I think it reaches further than that. The Red Sox could be up 6-0 in the ninth inning of a series they lead 3-0 and Red Sox Nation from Theo Epstein on down to my buddy Mike Burns will still be waiting for the other shoe to drop. As long as they have to get by the Yankees to win a World Series, they are always going to be looking over their shoulders. Curt Schilling is a possible exception, but his making a specific point of saying he came to the Red Sox just to beat the Yankees makes me think he is just as susceptible to the curse-induced choke. If the Red Sox are trying harder to beat the Yankees than they are to win the game, their paranoid psyche is going to be their downfall once again.

You don't hear the Yankees coming up with slogans like "Reverse the Curse," "Cowboy Up," or "Keep the Faith." You don't see Mike Mussina practicing on the side wearing a t-shirt asking "Why Not Us?" and, unlike Schilling, he is actually still yet to win a ring. They don't do dances, they don't practice midget-tossing as a celebration, and they don't grow facial hair resembling a garden hedge from "Edward Scissorhands." The game itself is entertaining enough for the defending American League Champs. The Yankees just go out and play baseball. That is why the Yankees will win again.

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Monday, October 11, 2004

 

Monday Morning Humility

My extraordinarily bad luck in Vegas has been well documented. However, it appears that my status as the real-life Cooler has followed me home and is now going to see to it that I lose any bet I make. On Friday afternoon as the Angels lost in the Division Series, I lost two bets simultaneously. Thanks to Washburn's hanging slider, I now owe Joe a steak dinner at the venue of his choice and, despite the burn I shall feel deep within my soul, I will be wearing a Red Sox t-shirt tomorrow resulting from a bet with another Red Sox pal, Mike Burns, aka Bill Brasky. As if this weren't enough, in typical Vegas fashion, I didn't know when to cut myself off Saturday when Adam declared he was not only going to beat me in fantasy football the following day, but that he was going to do it by twenty or more points. If I managed to beat that twenty-point spread, he would be washing my car. If his prophecy was fulfilled, I would bow down to his greatness on this very blog. (Sigh) Here goes nothin'...

Adam Partridge, GM of team Fuzzy Britches of the Fo' Shizzle Fantasy Football League has soundly defeated me as he said he would. His team proved itself to be unequivocally superior to mine and, thus, his GM skills also demonstrated their dominance. As a fantasy owner, he is without peers. I can only be thankful that I have had the opportunity to play among such greatness as his.

That was a helluva lot easier than wearing that Red Sox shirt is going to be. Luckily, I get to wear whatever hat I want. Still, if I hear one person say "Let's go Red Sox" in response to my shirt, I might make myself a necklace of scalps a la Brad Pitt in "Legends of the Fall." Stay tuned.

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