Thursday, October 14, 2004
Calling All (New) Angels
Now that the Angels 2004 campaign has come to a close, it's time for all the Halo pundits to weigh in on the upcoming offseason. There's so many issues up in the air with questions about signings and resignings, defensive realignments and call ups, so I think rather than present all the options, I will simply submit my amateur recommendations for which directions the team should take. I'm no Bill Stoneman or Theo Epstein, but I'm hardly a Jim Duquette either so don't worry about me trading away Dallas McPherson and Jered Weaver for a six-pack of Natural Ice.
The Angels Offseason priorities As I See It:
1. Sign a top-notch free agent starting pitcher. I contribute the Angels demise this season mostly to the fact that they had to use Colon, Escobar, and Washburn on three days' rest for consecutive starts. By the time they got to the playoffs, they were overworked and burnt out. The biggest need for the Angels is another bankable arm in the rotation to share the load and keep the entire front end of the staff fresher for the playoffs. My first choice here would be Carl Pavano. While I've heard reports that he wants to stay in Florida or at least the East Coast, nobody thought Vladimir Guerrero would end up in Angel Red either. Anything's possible. My second choice would be Brad Radke because the guy's as dependable as the sunrise. Minnesota is bound to do their best to keep him, but the Angels could outbid them if Brad wants to try his luck against the Yankees in a new uniform. Matt Clement might be my third choice, but I would still be sporting a halo of excitement should the Angels sign him. Any one of these three guys could be the difference for Anaheim in 2005. Priority number one should be spending the $10-12 million per year to bolster the starting staff.
2. Resign Troy Glaus. If, and only if, he will play 1st base. We saw flashes of promise from Dallas McPherson in his late season audition in 2004, but we also saw a hitter who, at times, was completely overmatched and totally baffled by breaking balls. He might not be ready to replace Troy Glaus, but he's too good to spend another year in AAA. Troy Glaus, the former World Series MVP, reminded us all of the incredible things he is capable of at the plate this postseason, hitting 2 HRs in 3 games and posting a batting average and on-base-plus-slugging percentage of .364 and 1.552 respectively. And let's not forget Glaus was leading the majors in homeruns when he went down with injury in early May. The kicker is he's only just now coming into his prime. This is the kind of offensive production the Angels need from a first baseman. He's no slouch defensively either. To get him to move to first would give the Angels better offense and allow some safety in their investment by moving him to a defensive position where his skills will not be wasted a la the DH but his surgically-repaired shoulder will not be under such great stress either. After two injury-plagued seasons, will Troy really be able to get Eric Chavez money or more on the open market? If the Yankees didn't already have a third baseman, I would say yes, but, otherwise, I don't think so. Who can afford to take that kind of a gamble? I believe the Angels could sign Troy to a one-year deal at $10 million, a very slight raise over his current salary of $9.9 million. It gives him a year to put up gaudy numbers and earn a bigger deal and it gives the Angels more time to make a long-term decision.
What to do with Erstad and Anderson then? Darin Erstad is going to win the 2004 Gold Glove at first base and is one of the greatest defensive players of all-time (yeah, i said it). However, his defense is put to much better use in centerfield. The upgrade of Erstad over Anderson in center is far greater than the downgrade of Erstad to Glaus at first. I realize Erstad is now at greater risk of injury in center but I think you take that chance in order to get a vacuum like Darin stealing outs from opposing teams. He'll have the winter to get strong and he'll be the first to tell you, playing first base is hardly a vacation for your hamstrings anyway. Because of the gamer he is, he's gonna dive wherever you play him so move Erstad back to his natural position and make Garret the everyday DH. Yes, you read that correctly, make Garret Anderson the designated hitter. Hopefully, Anderson will prove to be a true team player and will accept the move as the best thing for the team because, let's face it, of the four outfield possibilities of Guillen, Erstad, Guerrero and Anderson, Garret is without question the weakest.
Which brings me to Jose Guillen. Jose has apologized to the team, said he'd like to return, and even started anger management classes voluntarily. If Scioscia feels he can manage Jose again, I think you have to bring him back. Who else is going to give you 27 HRs and 104 RBI for a paltry $3.5 million? Jose Guillen was arguably the best value in baseball in 2004. I'll address payroll later, but I'll say now that if you're going to keep the salary of Glaus and add that of Pavano/Radke/Clement, you need the bargain production of Guillen to offset it.
3. Offer a compromise to Troy Percival. He keeps the closer job but for less money. He of the 316 career saves for the Angels and only the Angels deserves to be treated with the utmost respect and should be allowed to finish his career as the Angels' closer. While ineffective for a stretch this season, Percy returned from injury a wiser pitcher. Knowing he was not going to blow away hitters with 97-mph heat anymore, the crafty veteran developed better control of his curveball and changeup and proved to be as dependable as ever down the stretch with a 1.67 post-All-Star break ERA. Most of all, he has the true closer's mentality. Like Anthony Hopkins as Hannibal Lecter, he owns the role. Frankie Rodriguez is probably the future closer of the Angels, but the fact that he blew 7 out of 19 save opportunities in 2004 should tell you something. He has the stuff, he has the fire, but does he have the mental toughness to be the lone gunman on the un-grassy knoll in the 9th inning at this point in his career? His clutch play in tough situations one inning prior might lead you to believe he is, but I don't think the case is so cut-and-dry that we should bid farewell to Percival just yet. The issues with Percival have been perceived to be his refusal to a) take a lesser salary and b) accept a lesser role. I don't want to put him in a lesser role. I want to ask him to finish his career as my closer and compromise with me by signing for less money so that I can afford to keep my end of the bargain. Is finishing his career as the closer for his only team worth $2 million a year? We'll have to see. If he accepts those terms, it will be a proud day for the organization and we'll shake hands in mutual respect. If he feels he can't be paid less and is willing to follow a bigger paycheck out of town, we'll wish him well and give him a standing ovation whenever he returns. No hard feelings whatsoever. We'll put the ball in Frankie's hands for better or worse and hope to see Percy in an Angel uniform again someday in a coaching capacity perhaps.
4. Sign First Round Pick Jered Weaver. Play hardball as long as you like, but sign this pitcher. Many believe Weaver could be good enough to challenge for a spot in the starting rotation by next spring. While I'm not so sure about that, it's just as important to develop talent in the farm system anyway. Most of my friends live in Long Beach and saw many of Weaver's jaw-dropping outings for Long Beach State in person. If his ridiculous stats don't sell me on the guy, Joe and Rich Lederer's personal endorsement does and they say this guy is unbelievable. The only reason he fell to the Angels, of course, is that other teams didn't think they could pay his price tag. I say offer him a deal similar to that of Mark Prior, low-base ($0.25 million) with escalations based on performance ($0.5 million raise per ROTY, Cy Young, and All-Star achievement) and a nice signing bonus in the $4 million range. That's a fair deal for both sides. If agent Scott Boras is going to try to tell us Weaver deserves more than Mark Prior, somebody cut off his bar tab at The National and tell him to come back when he's sobered up.
Other Moves. Let's talk about the financials because you probably think I'm crazy at this point. Dumping the salaries of Appier and Sele (I'm sorry Aaron, I didn't realize you were still here. You may go now.) will net $20.5 million in savings. Bartolo's contract takes him from $9 mil. to $8 mil. next season so there's another million. Depending on what Percival decides to do, we're looking at either $2 million or $8 million savings there. I think you have to buyout Bengie Molina's $3 million contract for $100,000. He's a former Gold Glover but with younger, faster, cheaper and equally defensively talented Jose on the roster, you can't justify $3 million for Bengie. Buy him out. Ramon Ortiz spent much of the season moaning about a starting job so let someone else pay him $5.5 million to do it. He's gone. The total savings now comes to $31.9 million if Percy stays, $37.9 million if he goes.
Now let's spend that savings. Give $10 or $11 million to our free agent starter, $4.25 (including bonus) to Weaver, and a $100,000 raise to Glaus. Also, let's tack on $5 million for raises for Washburn, Eckstein, and Davanon. Has anyone other than Davanon really got a case to show an arbitrator that they deserve a huge raise? The total spending is now $20.35 million on the high end. The total team payroll would be just over $100 million if Percy stays and $94.5 million if he goes. Is that not Arte's target number? I'll admit, I may have been a little overly ambitious on the contracts of Glaus and the Arbitration Boys, but I don't think I'm far enough off to where the deals can't be done.
By letting Bengie and Ramon go, you might think I've left the roster undersized, but I think their roles have diminished enough to make the dropoff to cheaper players worth the savings. If it's doable, I'd love to resign Bengie at a more appropriate rate and I know Scioscia loves him.
I've read today that Bill Stoneman is "committed" to moving Garret Anderson back to left which would obviously point to the departure of Jose Guillen. Obviously Bill knows a lot more about Guillen-Gate than I do, but unless there was something absolutely unforgivable that occurred, I think it might be a mistake to dispatch him. As I said before, he is the Bang-For-Your-Buck Player of the Year and has a bazooka for a throwing arm. Do we really want to see Garret in left again? He seems to be an adequate defender at best, the type of player who should be playing DH so that a better defender can play the field. Why is this so out of the question? Does Garret really take pride in his defense? Just because he's not fat doesn't mean he can't be our David Ortiz.
Also, there seems to be a common perception that the Angels need more power in their lineup. I disagree. Yes, the Angels power numbers were down in 2004, but so were two of their best sluggers. Anderson was injured in one way or another all season and Glaus was completely out of the lineup for most of it. If they just get both of those guys back healthy in 2005, I believe the power production will go up. Not all of their problems need to be answered with outside help. If you want to get Carlos Beltran, Edgar Renteria, or, God help us, Nomar, they are all going to command double-digit salaries. The Angels cannot afford that if they're going to get a starting pitcher and keep Glaus. I think starting pitching is the absolute, hands down, number one need and should not be sacrificed for one iota of offense. And if it comes down to Glaus versus Beltran/Renteria, call me crazy but I'll take Troy Glaus (at first base). The guy is a masher and beyond that he's a local hero. Maybe his teammates were disappointed in him when he chose early season surgery and handcuffed the lineup, but how do you think those same teammates felt when he and Vlad carried the Angels in the playoffs?
Don't think I'm forgetting about the little people. A number of the young guys' contracts are up and renewable at no additional cost. Lackey, Jose Molina, Quinlan, Figgins, Donnelly, KRod, Shields and Gregg, welcome back. The only guy we might not need is Amaezega, but with the recent news that Adam Kennedy will miss a chunk of the 2005 season recovering from knee surgery, Alfredo might get to stay too to provide some infield depth. And what to do with Crazy Casey Kotchman? He's got neophyte status right now. He's too good for the minor leagues but he's not ready to be an everyday hitter, I don't think. Let him spell Glaus at first as Quinlan will do for McPherson at third.
So that's my wish list of offseason moves for the Almighty Angels. Some will say there's not enough new faces and some will say my projected payroll would only pass for a bottom line in Fantasyland. Well, the good news for the Angels is that they have a plethora of options before them as to how they improve their team. When the pool of players in question are guys like Glaus, Percival, Beltran, and Pavano to name a few, I like their chances to improve no matter what combination they end up with.
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The Angels Offseason priorities As I See It:
1. Sign a top-notch free agent starting pitcher. I contribute the Angels demise this season mostly to the fact that they had to use Colon, Escobar, and Washburn on three days' rest for consecutive starts. By the time they got to the playoffs, they were overworked and burnt out. The biggest need for the Angels is another bankable arm in the rotation to share the load and keep the entire front end of the staff fresher for the playoffs. My first choice here would be Carl Pavano. While I've heard reports that he wants to stay in Florida or at least the East Coast, nobody thought Vladimir Guerrero would end up in Angel Red either. Anything's possible. My second choice would be Brad Radke because the guy's as dependable as the sunrise. Minnesota is bound to do their best to keep him, but the Angels could outbid them if Brad wants to try his luck against the Yankees in a new uniform. Matt Clement might be my third choice, but I would still be sporting a halo of excitement should the Angels sign him. Any one of these three guys could be the difference for Anaheim in 2005. Priority number one should be spending the $10-12 million per year to bolster the starting staff.
2. Resign Troy Glaus. If, and only if, he will play 1st base. We saw flashes of promise from Dallas McPherson in his late season audition in 2004, but we also saw a hitter who, at times, was completely overmatched and totally baffled by breaking balls. He might not be ready to replace Troy Glaus, but he's too good to spend another year in AAA. Troy Glaus, the former World Series MVP, reminded us all of the incredible things he is capable of at the plate this postseason, hitting 2 HRs in 3 games and posting a batting average and on-base-plus-slugging percentage of .364 and 1.552 respectively. And let's not forget Glaus was leading the majors in homeruns when he went down with injury in early May. The kicker is he's only just now coming into his prime. This is the kind of offensive production the Angels need from a first baseman. He's no slouch defensively either. To get him to move to first would give the Angels better offense and allow some safety in their investment by moving him to a defensive position where his skills will not be wasted a la the DH but his surgically-repaired shoulder will not be under such great stress either. After two injury-plagued seasons, will Troy really be able to get Eric Chavez money or more on the open market? If the Yankees didn't already have a third baseman, I would say yes, but, otherwise, I don't think so. Who can afford to take that kind of a gamble? I believe the Angels could sign Troy to a one-year deal at $10 million, a very slight raise over his current salary of $9.9 million. It gives him a year to put up gaudy numbers and earn a bigger deal and it gives the Angels more time to make a long-term decision.
What to do with Erstad and Anderson then? Darin Erstad is going to win the 2004 Gold Glove at first base and is one of the greatest defensive players of all-time (yeah, i said it). However, his defense is put to much better use in centerfield. The upgrade of Erstad over Anderson in center is far greater than the downgrade of Erstad to Glaus at first. I realize Erstad is now at greater risk of injury in center but I think you take that chance in order to get a vacuum like Darin stealing outs from opposing teams. He'll have the winter to get strong and he'll be the first to tell you, playing first base is hardly a vacation for your hamstrings anyway. Because of the gamer he is, he's gonna dive wherever you play him so move Erstad back to his natural position and make Garret the everyday DH. Yes, you read that correctly, make Garret Anderson the designated hitter. Hopefully, Anderson will prove to be a true team player and will accept the move as the best thing for the team because, let's face it, of the four outfield possibilities of Guillen, Erstad, Guerrero and Anderson, Garret is without question the weakest.
Which brings me to Jose Guillen. Jose has apologized to the team, said he'd like to return, and even started anger management classes voluntarily. If Scioscia feels he can manage Jose again, I think you have to bring him back. Who else is going to give you 27 HRs and 104 RBI for a paltry $3.5 million? Jose Guillen was arguably the best value in baseball in 2004. I'll address payroll later, but I'll say now that if you're going to keep the salary of Glaus and add that of Pavano/Radke/Clement, you need the bargain production of Guillen to offset it.
3. Offer a compromise to Troy Percival. He keeps the closer job but for less money. He of the 316 career saves for the Angels and only the Angels deserves to be treated with the utmost respect and should be allowed to finish his career as the Angels' closer. While ineffective for a stretch this season, Percy returned from injury a wiser pitcher. Knowing he was not going to blow away hitters with 97-mph heat anymore, the crafty veteran developed better control of his curveball and changeup and proved to be as dependable as ever down the stretch with a 1.67 post-All-Star break ERA. Most of all, he has the true closer's mentality. Like Anthony Hopkins as Hannibal Lecter, he owns the role. Frankie Rodriguez is probably the future closer of the Angels, but the fact that he blew 7 out of 19 save opportunities in 2004 should tell you something. He has the stuff, he has the fire, but does he have the mental toughness to be the lone gunman on the un-grassy knoll in the 9th inning at this point in his career? His clutch play in tough situations one inning prior might lead you to believe he is, but I don't think the case is so cut-and-dry that we should bid farewell to Percival just yet. The issues with Percival have been perceived to be his refusal to a) take a lesser salary and b) accept a lesser role. I don't want to put him in a lesser role. I want to ask him to finish his career as my closer and compromise with me by signing for less money so that I can afford to keep my end of the bargain. Is finishing his career as the closer for his only team worth $2 million a year? We'll have to see. If he accepts those terms, it will be a proud day for the organization and we'll shake hands in mutual respect. If he feels he can't be paid less and is willing to follow a bigger paycheck out of town, we'll wish him well and give him a standing ovation whenever he returns. No hard feelings whatsoever. We'll put the ball in Frankie's hands for better or worse and hope to see Percy in an Angel uniform again someday in a coaching capacity perhaps.
4. Sign First Round Pick Jered Weaver. Play hardball as long as you like, but sign this pitcher. Many believe Weaver could be good enough to challenge for a spot in the starting rotation by next spring. While I'm not so sure about that, it's just as important to develop talent in the farm system anyway. Most of my friends live in Long Beach and saw many of Weaver's jaw-dropping outings for Long Beach State in person. If his ridiculous stats don't sell me on the guy, Joe and Rich Lederer's personal endorsement does and they say this guy is unbelievable. The only reason he fell to the Angels, of course, is that other teams didn't think they could pay his price tag. I say offer him a deal similar to that of Mark Prior, low-base ($0.25 million) with escalations based on performance ($0.5 million raise per ROTY, Cy Young, and All-Star achievement) and a nice signing bonus in the $4 million range. That's a fair deal for both sides. If agent Scott Boras is going to try to tell us Weaver deserves more than Mark Prior, somebody cut off his bar tab at The National and tell him to come back when he's sobered up.
Other Moves. Let's talk about the financials because you probably think I'm crazy at this point. Dumping the salaries of Appier and Sele (I'm sorry Aaron, I didn't realize you were still here. You may go now.) will net $20.5 million in savings. Bartolo's contract takes him from $9 mil. to $8 mil. next season so there's another million. Depending on what Percival decides to do, we're looking at either $2 million or $8 million savings there. I think you have to buyout Bengie Molina's $3 million contract for $100,000. He's a former Gold Glover but with younger, faster, cheaper and equally defensively talented Jose on the roster, you can't justify $3 million for Bengie. Buy him out. Ramon Ortiz spent much of the season moaning about a starting job so let someone else pay him $5.5 million to do it. He's gone. The total savings now comes to $31.9 million if Percy stays, $37.9 million if he goes.
Now let's spend that savings. Give $10 or $11 million to our free agent starter, $4.25 (including bonus) to Weaver, and a $100,000 raise to Glaus. Also, let's tack on $5 million for raises for Washburn, Eckstein, and Davanon. Has anyone other than Davanon really got a case to show an arbitrator that they deserve a huge raise? The total spending is now $20.35 million on the high end. The total team payroll would be just over $100 million if Percy stays and $94.5 million if he goes. Is that not Arte's target number? I'll admit, I may have been a little overly ambitious on the contracts of Glaus and the Arbitration Boys, but I don't think I'm far enough off to where the deals can't be done.
By letting Bengie and Ramon go, you might think I've left the roster undersized, but I think their roles have diminished enough to make the dropoff to cheaper players worth the savings. If it's doable, I'd love to resign Bengie at a more appropriate rate and I know Scioscia loves him.
I've read today that Bill Stoneman is "committed" to moving Garret Anderson back to left which would obviously point to the departure of Jose Guillen. Obviously Bill knows a lot more about Guillen-Gate than I do, but unless there was something absolutely unforgivable that occurred, I think it might be a mistake to dispatch him. As I said before, he is the Bang-For-Your-Buck Player of the Year and has a bazooka for a throwing arm. Do we really want to see Garret in left again? He seems to be an adequate defender at best, the type of player who should be playing DH so that a better defender can play the field. Why is this so out of the question? Does Garret really take pride in his defense? Just because he's not fat doesn't mean he can't be our David Ortiz.
Also, there seems to be a common perception that the Angels need more power in their lineup. I disagree. Yes, the Angels power numbers were down in 2004, but so were two of their best sluggers. Anderson was injured in one way or another all season and Glaus was completely out of the lineup for most of it. If they just get both of those guys back healthy in 2005, I believe the power production will go up. Not all of their problems need to be answered with outside help. If you want to get Carlos Beltran, Edgar Renteria, or, God help us, Nomar, they are all going to command double-digit salaries. The Angels cannot afford that if they're going to get a starting pitcher and keep Glaus. I think starting pitching is the absolute, hands down, number one need and should not be sacrificed for one iota of offense. And if it comes down to Glaus versus Beltran/Renteria, call me crazy but I'll take Troy Glaus (at first base). The guy is a masher and beyond that he's a local hero. Maybe his teammates were disappointed in him when he chose early season surgery and handcuffed the lineup, but how do you think those same teammates felt when he and Vlad carried the Angels in the playoffs?
Don't think I'm forgetting about the little people. A number of the young guys' contracts are up and renewable at no additional cost. Lackey, Jose Molina, Quinlan, Figgins, Donnelly, KRod, Shields and Gregg, welcome back. The only guy we might not need is Amaezega, but with the recent news that Adam Kennedy will miss a chunk of the 2005 season recovering from knee surgery, Alfredo might get to stay too to provide some infield depth. And what to do with Crazy Casey Kotchman? He's got neophyte status right now. He's too good for the minor leagues but he's not ready to be an everyday hitter, I don't think. Let him spell Glaus at first as Quinlan will do for McPherson at third.
So that's my wish list of offseason moves for the Almighty Angels. Some will say there's not enough new faces and some will say my projected payroll would only pass for a bottom line in Fantasyland. Well, the good news for the Angels is that they have a plethora of options before them as to how they improve their team. When the pool of players in question are guys like Glaus, Percival, Beltran, and Pavano to name a few, I like their chances to improve no matter what combination they end up with.
# posted by j.h.k. @ 6:52 PM 
